Sunday, November 22, 2009

“Debate About the Planet’s Sustainability Distorted by Media Self Interest,” by Stuart M. Whitaker

Al Gore, former vice president and current Jedi master of climate change, took his new book to CBS studios last month, where Katie Couric rolled out an old and rusty argument of the climate skeptics. Isn't it the case, she wanted to know, that scientific consensus on climate change is falling apart? Citing a Wall Street Journal article, she said 'someone named Joanne Simpson, the first woman to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology, doubts humans cause climate change.'

One may be tempted to think, hearing this interview, that my gosh, if the first woman to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology has doubts, we must all have doubts, ergo, surely we needn’t do anything. Yet Couric’s question demonstrates how arguments such as this, which distort what little factual basis may exist, get swept up blindly in the media’s echo chamber and begin to acquire a life of their own.

I don’t know what Couric’s own thoughts are about such climate change arguments but in this instance she didn’t demonstrate any inclination to evaluate the merits of the arguments. I do know that, as CBS News’ $15 million headliner, she is responsible for delivering viewers and dollars in the super-competitive media industry. The Force was not with Jedi Gore at that moment, and he responded to Couric’s question about climate skeptics with the sigh made (in)famous during his debates with George Bush in the 2000 presidential campaign. Seizing on the opportunity, Couric zinged Gore for his reaction. Score one for Couric and CBS News, score zero for Gore and the public’s climate literacy.

As background, I had the honor of introducing someone named Joanne and Robert Simpson at the Library of Congress in May, 1992, at which they made a presentation entitled “The Scientific Progeny of Chicago’s Carl-Gustov Rossby: From Weather Prediction to Global Warming.” I have great respect for both Simpsons, their accomplishments, and believe their arguments should be given full consideration.

Let me be clear that I’m not opposed to skepticism about climate change or anything else. In fact, one should as a matter of course be skeptical and never accept unquestioningly what one is told, regardless of the source (this article included). We have numerous examples of the disastrous effects of an unquestioning acceptance of media distortions, including recently the reporting by the New York Times during the run up to the Iraq war. We should learn from that and other experiences, and not make the same mistake about climate change. Let’s look more closely first at what the Wall Street Journal reported and then at what Joanne Simpson has actually written.

Kimberly Strassel provided the fodder in June to the climate skeptics, claiming in the Wall Street Journal that the number of skeptics is swelling everywhere. "Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe now counts more than 700 scientists who disagree with the U.N. -- 13 times the number who authored the U.N.'s 2007 climate summary for policymakers. Joanne Simpson, the world's first woman to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology, expressed relief upon her retirement last year that she was finally free to speak 'frankly' of her nonbelief."

One gets the impression from Strassel that Simpson had held her tongue under threat from a green mob, but that is hardly the case. What Simpson actually wrote in Climate Science in February 2008 was that "since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receive any funding, I can speak quite frankly" and that "I decided to keep quiet in this controversy until I had a positive contribution to make." Simpson further decried the fact that both sides of the climate debate are now hurling “personal epithets” at each other. Simpson’s reputation for scientific integrity seems well deserved.

Yet as to her belief about climate change, Simpson wrote “there is no doubt that atmospheric greenhouse gases are rising rapidly and little doubt that some warming and bad ecological events are occurring.” What does she have to say about Gore and climate policy? “Decisions have to be made on incomplete information. In this case, we must act on the recommendations of Gore and the IPCC because if we do not reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and the climate models are right, the planet as we know it will in this century become unsustainable. But as a scientist I remain skeptical . . . “

The lead witness for the climate skeptics turns out to be one of the best witnesses for those who call for immediate action. Failure to act is to risk finding that life as we know it on this planet will become unsustainable. After the recent crash on Wall Street, who wants to bear that risk?


@katiecouric: Al Gore http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5500244n&tag=api&tag=nl.e889

The Climate Change Climate Change, by Kimberly Strassel http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124597505076157449.html

TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Set Potential in Climate Controversy, by Joanne Simpson, private citizen http://climatesci.org/2008/02/27/trmm-tropical-rainfall-measuring-mission-data-set-potential-in-climate-controversy-by-joanne-simpson-private-citizen/

Stuart M. Whitaker is a finance, technology, and policy consultant, with an MBA from the University of Chicago.

(wa091111)

Saturday, June 6, 2009

“Ridesharing Space Heating Up With Uber-Networkers,” by Stuart M. Whitaker

Despite some prior claims that US automobile miles driven was price inelastic, the runup of gasoline prices—which peaked at $4.16 in mid-2008—did induce consumers to seek transportation alternatives, including walking, bicycling, public transit, and carpooling. Prices fell to $1.61 in January 2009 but have been climbing steadily since them, and are now at $2.61(1). While the decline in gasoline from their 2008 peak has reduced the financial incentives associated with non-private automobile transportation, price is only one of a number of factors that US consumers consider when making their transportation choices. Another significant consideration is the relative convenience offered by each transportation alternative.

Private automobiles, walking, and bicycling have in common the fact that individuals have complete choice over when and where they go, while public transportation and carpooling require participants to coordinate their travels with others. As a result, the experience provided by the first three modes of transportation can't be improved through technological innovations such as social networking or other communication technology. The experience provided by the latter two modes of transportation, however—public transportation and carpooling—do lend themselves to improvement through technological innovation.

We decided to evaluate a number of carpool alternatives, and began with a Google search for "carpool services." Though Google found over 4 million results to our query, we immediately narrowed our focus to sixteen alternatives that appeared in Google "sponsored links" and the listings at two sites that appeared "above the fold," Planet Green (www.planetgreen.discovery.com), and Rideshare Directory (www.rideshare-directory.com). We the did a brief review of these sixteen sites—looking for first impressions about ease of use, interface, partnerships, relevance, etc.—and narrowed this list down further to five sites which we tested, or at least attempted to test: CarpoolWorld.com, eRideshare, GoLoco, nuride, and Zimride.

To be successful, first and foremost sites have to attract users. Only those that attract users will have any hope of earning revenue in the long run—revenue that will pay development costs and returns to the investors. Some of these sites have had and have extensive ongoing development efforts, while others are bare bones operations with little evident ongoing development effort. One of the sites—Craigslist—is famous (or infamous)—for contributing to the steady decline in newspaper revenues as classified advertising has moved from newspapers to Craigslist and other online sites. Craigslist didn't make our cut of five sites to look at more closely though because the other sites offer more than just the same no-charge approach as Craigslist—they each also offer capabilities more suited to carpool needs.

Of the five that we looked at, nuride stands out in a number of ways—as the only one that requires participants to belong to a pre-existing group, the only one that promises rewards in the form of discounts and coupons for usage, and the only that is most aggressively seeking sponsors. Of the four remaining, the first two—CarpoolWorld.com and eRideshare—have an older look and feel and are visibly dependent on Google ads for revenue.

The remaining two—GoLoco and Zimride—have a number of things in common. Both are betting heavily on the "networking" aspects of the social-networking space. Both have a strong web 2.0 look and feel. Both clearly have experienced management and, presumably, either deep pockets themselves of access to deep pockets to pay for continued development. Furthermore, both of these sites have deep connections with carsharing site Zipcar. GoLoco's CEO Robin Chase is founder and former CEO of Zipcar, and has brought along Zipcar's former CTO on as well. Yet while GoLoco may tout having former Zipcar personnel, it is Zimride that announced a partnership for the future with Zipcar in May 2009. As part of this partnership, when reserving a Zipcar, users will be able to automatically post their reservation on Zimride, making it easier for Zimride carpoolers to link up with Zipcar drivers. In the business arena, at the moment, it appears as though Zimride is king; the implications being that Zimride will generate more growth and have access to more capital, if necessary.

One of the complications of carpooling is its complexity in terms of frequency, origin and destination, as well as the personal human interactions. We decided to test these five sites for their apparent utility in providing transportation between two Virginia locations not served by the metro rail system: Leesburg, Virginia 20176, and the intersection of Leesburg Pike and Chain Bridge Road, Virginia 22102, 34.6 miles distance (according to maps.google.com) in the heart of northern Virginia. What we found was that none of the sites could provide a match with the desired origination and destination. One of our conclusions is that it isn't essential for riders' originating and terminating locations to be identical—so long as it is "convenient" for the driver to drop riders off at their destination. Another conclusion is that carpooling communities—universities, governments, businesses—are critical to establishing sufficient number of riders and drivers to make carpooling worthwhile.


FIVE TEST SITES:

CarpoolWorld.com (2)(3)(4) www.carpoolworld.com.

Evaluation:
- About: Owned and operated by Datasphere Corporation, Jericho, NY.
- Size: registered trips with email: 87,258;
- Revenue model: Google ad supported; free sign up;
- Our experience: no matches within 3 miles of origination and destination locations; multiple trips are not allowed.


eRideshare (2)(3) www.erideshare.com.

Evaluation:
- About: based in Edwardsville, Illinois.
- Size: 19036 daily carpools, 349 groups; Users: 25,000-35,000(5);
- Revenue model: Google ads; free signup;
- Our experience: no matches within 3 miles of origination and destination locations; interface is cumbersome.


GoLoco (2)(3) www.goloco.org.

Evaluation:
- About: managed by a team with extensive credentials, including: CEO Robin Chase, founder and former CEO of Zipcar; CTO Roy Russell, former Zipcar CTO; Transportation Planning and Development Director Mark Chase, who teaches transportation planning at Tufts;
- Size: Users: 10,000(5);
- Revenue model: takes 10% of transaction payment if there is a transaction (GoLoco recommends equal sharing of transportation cost);
- Our experience: web 2.0 / social networking look and feel; able to see and contact friends; Facebook app indicates 102 monthly active users with a 3.4 out of 5 rating; anyone is able to join a group, group invitations may be sent by entering email addresses, from address books, and from current GoLoco members; only people with community email addresses can join communities; very friendly, easy to use interface; no matches within 3 miles of origination and destination locations.


nuride (4) www.nuride.com.

Evaluation:
- About: emphasis is on tracking savings and earning rewards for taking a "greener" trip; based in Virginia, co-founders include E. Scott Kasprowicz, former Deputy Secretary of Transportation for the Commonwealth of Virginia; operates in six US locales;
- Size: 41,015 members; Claims to have coordinated 2 million rides and provided $ 1 million in rewards;
- Revenue model: Users earn rewards for taking trips; rewards paid by government, employers, and business sponsors;
- Our experience: Can only sign up as part of an approved organization, cannot sign up individually; awaiting authorization.


Zimride (2) www.zimride.com.

Evaluation:
- About: received grant from Facebook-funded fbFund; Android mobile application developed by Ecorio; partners with Zipcar;
- Size: over 300,000 users; Facebook application advertises 49,844 monthly active users;
- Revenue model: appears focused on premium services, such as ridesharing for organizations (e.g., Wal-Mart), and venues;
- Our experience: web 2.0 / social networking look and feel; difficulties creating a single event; Facebook application failed to install; no matches within origination and destination locations;


SIXTEEN PRELIMINARY SITES:
- AlterNetRides (3) www.alternetrides.com
- Carpool Connect (2) www.carpoolconnect.com
- Carpooling Network, The (4) www.carpoolingnetwork.com
- CarpoolWorld.com (2)(3)(4) www.carpoolworld.com
- Craigslist (3) www.craigslist.com
- digihitch (3) www.digihitch.com
- eRideshare (2)(3) www.erideshare.com
- GoLoco (2)(3) www.goloco.org
- hitchhikers.org (3) www.hitchhikers.org
- icarpool.com (4) www.icarpool.com
- Local Motion (3) www.alexride.org/carpool.php
- nuride (4) www.nuride.com
- RideCheck (3) www.ridecheck.com
- Ridester (3) www.ridester.com
- willyoujoinus (4) www.willyoujoinus.com
- Zimride (2) www.zimride.com


Sources:
(1) http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx.
(2) http://planetgreen.discovery.com/work-connect/internet-carpool-site-review.html.
(3) www.rideshare-directory.com/.
(4) Google Ads.
(5) http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/07/24/how-to-hitch-a-ride-on-the-web/.

(wa090606)